Determinantes da procura turística internacional em Moçambique: o papel da taxa de câmbio

Abstract

This study aimed to analyze the impact of the exchange rate on international tourism demand in Mozambique. To this end, the econometric method based on regression analysis by Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) was used, using quarterly time series between 2002 and 2022. The estimated model considered tourism demand as the dependent variable, with the exchange rate as the explanatory variable of greatest interest. The income of the countries of origin, the population of the countries of origin, environmental quality, the international price of oil, malaria and climate change were used as control variables. The results showed that the exchange rate has a negative but insignificant effect on tourism demand in Mozambique. Thus, the study concludes that the exchange rate has no impact on international tourism demand in Mozambique. This demand is influenced by the income and population of the countries of origin, environmental quality, and climate change, thus suggesting that the premise that currency appreciation constitutes the main constraint to international tourism demand in Mozambique should be reevaluated. The study recommends that for the development of tourism in Mozambique, policymakers adopt policies and strategies focused on environmental management and conservation, as well as marketing aimed at attracting higher-income and denser population source markets(TRADUÇÃO NOSSA)