A relação entre ajuda externa e taxa de câmbio real: um teste da hipótese da doença holandesa em Moçambique (1980 – 2021)

Abstract

This study analyzes the relationship between foreign aid and the real exchange rate (TCR) in Mozambique from 1980 to 2021, with the aim of testing the disease hypothesis Dutch in the country. To achieve this objective, the study uses the Cointegration Technique Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) to estimate the disease model Dutch, using time series data of the variables relevant to the analysis, namely, real exchange rate, foreign aid, government spending, GDP per capita, terms of trade and supply of currency. Contrary to expectations, the results show that over the period in analysis, foreign aid had a positive effect on the TCR, implying that Mozambique did not suffered from Dutch disease during that period. More specifically, increases in foreign aid by around 1% led to increases in TCR by around 0.7%, meaning that, Contrary to the Dutch disease hypothesis, foreign aid is associated with depreciations of the metical and not to their assessments. In this context, it is concluded that Mozambique can continue to receive external aid without many conditions. However, in order to ensure the continuity of analysis results, it is recommended that policies macroeconomic (fiscal and monetary) measures are conducted in a coordinated manner, so as not to nullify the positive effects of large inflows of external aid and thus guarantee their contribution to sustainable economic development.