Modelo de previsão do consumo de energia eléctrica facturada, baseado na metodologia de box-jenkins caso: Cidade de Maputo

Abstract

In this work, the Invoiced Electricity Consumption for domestic customers was estimated using the low voltage line in Maputo City for the period from June 2007 to May 2008. For this purpose, the Box-Jinkins methodology was used with the estimates of the parameters were made by the maximum likelihood method. The Billed Electric Energy Consumption series did not show seasonal movements in the period under analysis and did not remain stationary, as three different levels of consumption were identified. Of the estimated models, the one that best fit the data was the ARIMA(O,1,1). Forecasts indicate a declining trend in Invoiced Electric Energy Consumption. (TRADUÇÃO NOSSA)