A abordagem monetária e a paridade do poder de compra como modelos explicativos da evolução da taxa de câmbio Mzm/Zar

Abstract

The exchange rate is a very important variable in the economy. However, the elaboration of a measure for this price is not straightforward, and involves a series of theoretical and operational issues. The aim of this monograph is to discuss these issues around two models - purchasing power parity and monetary approach to the exchange rate - in order to identify whether they fit the exchange rate relation of the metical and the rand. In addition to the theoretical and methodological discussion, comparisons are made in order to verify whether the prediction capabilities of the two models are significantly different. The findings are that the purchasing power parity model offers an acceptable result. In contrast, the monetary approach model proved to be unsatisfactory, for reasons not attributable a priori to the model itself, but probably due to issues related to data quality and the relaxation of certain factors, thus opening a space for deeper studies on the subject