Análise crítica aos determinantes das exportações em Moçambique (1975-2002)

Abstract

This paper focuses on a critical analysis of the determinants of exports in Mozambique from 1975 to 2002. It aims to analyze and discuss to what extent the views related to international trade (neo-classical theories, dynamics of foreign trade, views on industrialization, Keynesian model for an open economy) explain the exports from Mozambique. What are the main determinants of exports in Mozambique in the period in reference? Furthermore, the aim is to see to what extent the structure of Mozambican exports is or is not explained by the dynamics of production and foreign trade, or by socio-economic pressures. Which factor(s) was (were) more predominant? The topic was chosen because the intention is to incorporate the supply component into the debate on the determinants of exports, making it more comprehensive and realistic. In turn, the productive base, in the economic literature, is considered as the engine of growth because of the linkages it is able to generate, which is why the productive base in Mozambique and its implications for exports will be analyzed. In order to answer the research questions, the paper contains three sections, namely: the first section discusses the determinants of exports according to views on international trade, industrialisation, and other forms of analysis of the determinants of exports; the second section, part of the theoretical framework, discusses the main determinants of the variations in the structure of exports, focusing on the dynamics of the productive base and of foreign trade, as well as on economic pressures and linkages; the third and final part presents the conclusions of the paper, with subsequent recommendations. (TRADUÇÃO NOSSA)