Estimativa dos determinantes da balança de pagamentos a partir da abordagem monetarista: o caso de Moçambique durante o período de 1980-1999

Abstract

Mozambique's accession to the Bretton Woods institutions in 1984 aimed at achieving several objectives, among which the strengthening of BP's position stands out. Despite the efforts undertaken and which have resulted in the adoption of economic policy measures to correct the imbalances of BP in Mozambique, it remains in deficit. The measures taken were those of monetary and fiscal policies that fit the monetarist models and in the spirit of the financial packages of the structural adjustment programs recommended by the IMF. The fundamental objective of this study is to provide an estimate of the determinants of BP in Mozambique from the monetarist approach, during the period from 1980 to 1999. To achieve this objective, the author investigated the relationships between BP on the one hand, and demand and money supply, on the other. Because of the lack of consistent and organized statistical information for the constitution of a sufficiently long time series, the period covered by the study was limited to only 19 years, that is, from 1980 to 1999. Still to achieve the objectives of the study, the author used the econometric method. To this end, two models were specified, one for the demand for real proceeds and the other for the money supply process in Mozambique. Both models were estimated using the regression technique known as OLS, and with the help of the Shazam econometric package. The results obtained from the estimation of the two models indicate that the determination coefficients are good and the F-statistic is significant. They also suggest that all the coefficients of the variables included in the two models had correct signs, that is, according to the predicted by economic theory. In the currency demand model, only the yield-elasticity and the coefficient of the qualitative variable Dj were statistically significant. These results seem to suggest that income is an important determinant of demand for real proceeds in Mozambique, and that the average impact of PRES on currency demand was significant. In the international reserves model, only two of the explanatory variables (yield and interest rate) were statistically significant. These results seem to suggest that yield and interest rate are important determinants of international reserves in Mozambique, during the period covered by the study.