Determinantes das notas e moedas em circulação em Moçambique: Uma análise econométrica

Abstract

Many models of demand for monetary aggregates are made using the money supply as the measure of money. Given the high level of dollarization in Mozambique, in this study we present an alternative measure of money, the Outstanding Notes and Coins, and based on two methodologies, seasonality analysis and estimation of the economic model, we demonstrate how this restricted monetary aggregate can affect the real economy variables, and therefore be used in the pursuit of monetary policy. The seasonally adjusted method suggests that the main trend in the series of Outstanding Notes and Coins results from (i) the authorities' policies, (ii) very strong seasonal factors in the last quarter of each year similar to domestic production and the exchange rate Metical in relation to the South African Rand, and, to a lesser extent, (iii) random movements associated with exchange rate variations. Using the co-integration approach and the error correction model, we demonstrated that there is a stable relationship between banknotes and coins in circulation with a small number of variables in the real sector, namely real yield and price level, thus obtaining the elasticities of long term, which fit with the theory of developing economies. In the specific case of yield, the elasticity is relatively low (0.3), being more consistent with Baumol-Tobin's postulates than with Fischer's. The study also shows that the speed of adjustment from the short to the long-term balance of about 10% per month is not only consistent with the theoretical framework, but also fits in with previous studies presented by other authors. In summary, the evolution of Notes and Coins in Circulation in Mozambique is determined by the exchange rate of the Metical in relation to the South African Rand, by the level of domestic prices, by the interest rate on time deposits, by the balance of Notes and Coins in Circulation from previous periods and due to seasonal factors in the fourth quarter. In addition to reflecting on the monetary aggregate currently in use as an intermediate objective, the Monetary Mass, the study also recommends that in the money supply process the authorities take into account the seasonal factors of the last quarter of the year, and the lags of the explanatory variables.