Análise das tendências de eficiência no sistema de educação em Moçambique: estimação de matrizes de transição usando a abordagem “Minimum Cross-Entropy” (1992-2003)

Abstract

Despite the rapid economic growth achieved in recent years, Mozambique remains a poor country and one of the factors that determines poverty, lies in the low access to education services, mainly at the level of rural areas. Analyzes of the IAF, 1996-97 point to an indirect and strong relationship between the returns of completing Primary Education of the 2nd degree, both in urban areas, as in rural areas and levels of consumption. Families in which at least one individual had completed EP2 exhibited substantially higher levels of consumption per capita (Handa, Ornar and Ibrahimo, 1998). Given the importance of education in economic development, efforts to raise its status can be illustrated by the current trend in the growth of the sector's expenditure index in relation to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which, for example, from 1999 to 2001, increased from 2.9 percent to 3.4 percent, (MPF / MINED, 2003: 7). However, this indicator is still below the average for sub-Saharan African countries (estimated at 5.1 percent in 1997), which implies that much needs to be done to develop the education system in Mozambique. At the time of Mozambique's independence, around 90 per cent of the population was illiterate, but currently it is estimated at around 53.6 per cent, the proportion of the Mozambican population aged 15 and over who cannot read, understand and write. a simple and short sentence in your life (INE, 2004). This work presents quantitative evidence on the efficiency trends in the education system, that is, on the demand side or in terms of increased absorption capacity. and public sector) during the period 1992-2003. To this end, Transition Matrices for the education system were estimated, using several approaches: Ncio-cstacionária (or with “Drifts”) - which calculates the projections of enrolled students, assuming annual linear trends in the probabilities of a student being able to pass class, repeat or give up. (TRADUÇÃO NOSSA)