Determinantes da velocidade de circulação da moeda em Moçambique (2010-2022)

Abstract

In recent years, the Mozambican economy has undergone significant structural transformations and macroeconomic challenges that reinforce the need for in-depth studies in various areas of economic policy. This economics work aims to identify the main determinants that influence the Velocity of Money (VCM) in Mozambique (2010-2022). The research and analysis are justified in a context where the frequent crises that the Mozambican economy goes through require a greater understanding of the factors that influence the effectiveness of monetary policy, as one of the mechanisms for stabilizing the economy. To identify the determinants of the velocity of money, the vector error correction model (VECM) was used, since the method allows capturing the short- and long-term relationships between the main variables such as GDP, interest rates and inflation that the theory presents among the main factors that explain the VCM. The results indicate that the velocity of money circulation (VMC) in Mozambique decreased between 2010 and 2022. Initially, it was above 5.0, suggesting a relatively dynamic economy. However, from 2011 onwards, a gradual downward trend began, which intensified between 2014 and 2016, a period in which the velocity of circulation fell to around 2.5. Econometric tests indicate that the velocity of money circulation reacts to long-term imbalances – confirming the existence of co-integration relationships – but in the short term it is not significantly affected by GDP, inflation, interest rates or exchange rates. The results also indicate that seasonal effects are significant, suggesting that specific shocks or structural characteristics of the economy may play an important role in the dynamics of the VMC(TRADUÇÃO NOSSA)