Impacto das exportações no crescimento da economia de Moçambique de 2000 a 2023

Abstract

The main objective of this work is to analyze the impact of exports on Mozambique's economic growth from 2000 to 2023, observing the assumption that exports drive economic growth, or, in other words, Export Led Growth - ELG. During the period under analysis, from 2000 to 2023, Mozambique observed significant growth not only in exports but also in Gross Domestic Product (GDP), with exports showing an average annual growth rate of approximately 10.82% and GDP showing an average annual growth rate of approximately 6.43%. This indicates that from 2000 to 2023 the export sector outperformed GDP growth. To achieve the main objective of this work, an autoregressive distributed lag econometric model – Error Correction Model (ARDL-ECM) was adopted for annual time series data of the variables real GDP, real exports and real imports, obtained from the World Bank and exchange rate data obtained from the Bank of Mozambique. The econometric procedures adopted were the unit root test to test stationarity, model estimation, Granger causality test to verify the direction of causality and the diagnostic tests: Serial autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity. The results obtained show a long-term relationship between the model variables, specifically between GDP and Exports, that is, the hypothesis is validated that exports drive Mozambique's economic growth, only in the long term(TRADUÇÃO NOSSA)