Independência do Banco Central e inflação nos paises da SADC(2000-2019)

Abstract

The present study analyses the relationship between central bank independence and inflation in the countries of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) over the period 2000 to 2019. The central hypothesis is that greater independence of the central bank reduces inflation. To test this hypothesis, an econometric panel data model was applied to 11 SADC countries. The study uses central bank governor turnover as a measure of independence, in contrast to traditional approaches based on legal indices. Additionally, it considers macroeconomic variables such as GDP per capita, exchange rate, political stability and trade openness, aiming to understand the factors that influence inflation in the region. The results indicate that, despite the negative relationship between central bank independence and inflation observed in developed countries, this relationship is not statistically significant in SADC countries. Factors such as external dependence, vulnerability to external shocks and institutional weaknesses appear to have a greater impact on inflation in SADC countries