Impacto do crédito à economia no crescimento económico em Moçambique (2011 - 2023)

Abstract

The present study analyzes the impact of credit on economic growth in Mozambique during the period from 2011 to 2023, using quarterly data. For the analysis, an econometric model in log-log form was employed, including as explanatory variables credit to the economy, the interest rate (Prime Rate), and the inflation rate, with real GDP as the dependent variable. The methodology used includes tests of stationarity, cointegration, a vector autoregressive (VAR) time series model, and impulse response functions, complemented by econometric diagnostics. The results indicate the existence of cointegration, which means that credit to the economy has a positive and statistically significant impact on long-term economic growth, confirming the supply-leading hypothesis, according to which credit expansion stimulates productive activity. Inflation also showed a positive effect on GDP when maintained at moderate levels, while the interest rate did not demonstrate statistically significant relevance at conventional levels; however, it exhibited a negative coefficient, reflecting its restrictive effect on economic growth. It was concluded that credit constitutes an important instrument for stimulating economic growth in Mozambique, although its efficiency is limited by the low level of financial inclusion and the concentration of credit in specific sectors. Recommendations include strengthening financial inclusion policies, diversifying credit allocation, and reviewing monetary policies to make credit more accessible and productive.(TRADUÇÃO NOSSA)