Determinantes do crédito bancário em Moçambique: estudo de caso Banco Comercial de Investimentos, SA de 2014 -2024

Abstract

This research aims to analyze the extent to which Gross Domestic Product, demand deposits, and interest rates determine the volume of bank credit from BCI, S.A. in Mozambique during the period between 2014 and 2024. This is justified by the fact that Banco Comercial de Investimentos, S.A. is one of the institutions that grants the most credit and attracts deposits in the country, thus being a fundamental part of the Mozambican financial system. The main motivation for choosing this topic is that it aims to understand which factors determine the bank's credit to interested parties, since the demand for bank credit has become increasingly relevant in the daily lives of economic agents, as credit has a catalytic effect on the different productive sectors of the economy. This research is important because the results provided by the analysis will give economic policymakers effective tools to conduct policies aimed at ensuring improved economic activity. Therefore, it is concluded that the null hypothesis that an increase in total demand deposits and gross domestic product positively affects the credit granted by BCI, SA is not rejected. The research results showed that the variable total demand deposits (DPT) has a positive sign and is consistent with economic theory, and an increase in total demand deposits by one million USD will cause an increase in credit granted by BCI bank by approximately 778 thousand USD, keeping the other variables constant, while the variable interest rate (TJR) is negative and consistent with economic theory, as a high interest rate is expected to reduce the volume of credit granted by BCI bank, and is statistically insignificant at the 5% significance level, as it has a p-value = 0.339 greater than 5%. Finally, the GDP variable shows a positive sign consistent with economic theory, and in terms of magnitude, an increase in gross domestic product of USD 1 million will cause an increase in the volume of credit of the bank BCI, SA of approximately USD 5 million, keeping the other variables constant. (TRADUÇÃO NOSSA)