A relação entre o comércio externo, nvestimento directo estrangeiro e crescimento económico em Moçambique no período de 2007 à 2021. uma aplicação de análise de cointegração - abordagem de Johansen

Abstract

The Mozambican economy has grown significantly and some of the determinants of this growth are foreign direct investment (FDI) and foreign trade. The present study aims to analyze the relationship between economic growth, exports, imports and foreign direct investment in Mozambique from 2007 to 2021. The study uses quarterly data from the Bank of Mozambique and the National Statistics Institute. This study begins with a literature and empirical review of economic growth, exports, imports and foreign direct investment in general and how it behaves in the Mozambican market. Based on Johansen's cointegration analysis methodology, the existence of a unit root is tested with the augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), Phillips Perron (PP) and KPSS tests, concluding that the series are non-stationary in level , but in its first differences, then the Johansen cointegration analysis is carried out, in order to identify the number of cointegration vectors necessary for the system, from the results of the trace tests and maximum eigenvalue it is concluded that there are at most 3 linear combination vectors between series. And the VECM is estimated, in order to study the short and long-term relationship between the series and the model does not prove to be consistent and adequate, and a modified VECM is subsequently estimated, with the exclusion of the imports series, showing consistency and stability. And finally, the response of exports and FDI when a GDP shock occurs, exports respond positively with sharp growth in the first four moments and remain constant over time and FDI responds negatively in the first two moments, and grows positively from the third moment onwards and remains stable over time. And from the decomposition analysis of the variance of the forecast errors, it is highlighted that a large part of the variance in GDP occurs primarily due to shocks themselves, explaining 100% of the GDP movements in the first period, and after 5 periods after the occurrence of a 53.2% is explained by itself while 43.96% is explained by exports and 0.84% by FDI.