Análise da relação entre o investimento directo estrangeiro, taxa de câmbio e crescimento económico em Moçambique, no período entre 2007 a 2018

Abstract

The world foreign direct investment ows have increased considerably in the last two decades. During this period, the Mozambican economy also showed signi cant growth in ows, which became an important source of external nancing for the national economy. The objec-tive of this study is to analyze the relationships between foreign direct investment, exchange rate and economic growth in the Mozambican economy in the period between 2007 and 2018. To achieve the proposed objectives, the Johansen cointegration test, Granger Casualty / Block Exogeneity Wald Test, Impulse-Response Functions and Forecast Error Variance De- composition were applied for econometric analyses. The results of the present work suggest that the variables are stationary in rst di erences - I(1), and the residuals are not correlated with each other and are homoscedastic in the VAR model (5). The causality test was car- ried out, the causal relationships found establish that the variable FDI and Exchange Rate in uence the variation in economic growth in Mozambique. GDP is the most endogenous variable in the model and FDI is the most exogenous variable, which in uences the other variables in the model. Based on the results obtained in the impulse-response functions and forecast error variance decomposition, it is concluded that the exchange rate is a strong long-term determinant in explaining variations in economic growth in Mozambique, followed by foreign direct investment. However, foreign direct investment in the country has not yet produced the expected e ects, despite an increase in the respective ows each year