Análise da evolução temporal de novos casos de infecções por HIV/SIDA na província da zambézia, no (período de janeiro de 2016 à junho de 2022)

Abstract

The HIV/AIDS epidemic represents a global, dynamic and unstable phenomenon, whose form of occurrence in different regions of the world depends, among other determinants, on individual and collective behavior. This work presents analyzes that describe the behavior of new cases of HIV/AIDS infection in the Province of Zambézia, located in the Central region of Mozambique, classified as one of the most populated Provinces in the country. This work has the general objective of analysing the series of new cases of HIV infection in the Province of Zambézia, from January 2016 to June 2022. The data for carrying out this study are secondary, corresponding to new monthly cases of HIV/AIDS infection in each of the ports entry point of health units in the province and community, whose database was provided by the Provincial Health Directorate of Zambézia. To achieve the proposed objectives, the Box-Jenkins methodology was applied, the results of which show that the series is stationary in level, despite presenting fluctuations in some months. However, the best model selected is ARMA (0,1,0) as it demonstrated better statistical performance in relation to competing models and was subsequently used to predict future cases of HIV/AIDS infection in the Province of Zambézia.