Estudo da relação entre exportações de recursos energéticos e o crescimento económico de Moçambique (2011-2023)

Abstract

The main objective of this work is to analyse the effects of energy exports, namely natural gas, coal, and electricity, on GDP growth in Mozambique between 2011 and 2023. The issue addressed in the study is based on the observation that not all exports contribute equally to economic growth, and despite Mozambique's considerable energy potential, there are concerns that the country might follow the path of other African states rich in raw materials and oil, which failed to channel the revenues from non-renewable resource exports for the benefit of their populations. The study employs the estimation of time series econometric models, using the Ordinary Least Squares Method and the estimation of the error correction mechanism, to assess the relationship between economic growth and exports of natural gas, coal, and electricity in the short and long term. The results indicate that, in the short term, 19% of economic growth is explained by energy exports, with coal having a significant negative effect. In the long term, energy exports account for 44.5% of variations in economic growth, with natural gas and electricity showing significant positive impacts. The work highlights the importance of governance policies and sustainable management to maximise the economic and social benefits of energy exports.