Análise da volatilidade dos preços das exportações mensais de energia eléctrica no período de Janeiro de 2011 à Junho de 2023

Abstract

n the period from 2018 to 2023, Mozambique has emerged as an important player in the energy sector, especially in the export of electrical energy. This new capacity to export electricity has a immense potential for the country, both from an economic and diplomatic point of view. As demand for electrical energy in neighboring countries continues to increase, Mozambique’s vast resources have become a valuable asset. The work aimed to analyze the volatility of export prices monthly electricity supply, from January 2011 to June 2023. For the analysis, used autoregressive models with conditional heteroscedasticity. For estima- tion, we use maximum likelihood method, and it was verified that three models presented all the parameters significant. The model selection criteria suggested that the exponential generalized autoregressive conditio- nal heteroscedasticity with parameters (3,2) model is the best adjusts the behavior of the series of monthly electricity exports for the period under study and for prediction purposes, the same model presented better performace, as it presents lower values of predictive indicators. according to the models chosen, we found a growing trend from July to September 2023, and an decreases until November 2023 for the predicted values.