Impacto do défice comercial na dívida externa de Moçambique (2013- 2022)

Abstract

This paper studies the impact of the Trade Deficit on the Mozambican External Public Debt over a 10-year period (2013-2022 quarterly). To achieve this objective, a multiple regression estimated with the help of the eviews students 12 lite software is used using the Ordinary Least Squares estimation technique. The VAR model is also estimated, which allows the capture of past events of all variables, making it a more dynamic model. The data under analysis are a time series with a quarterly dimension, and were obtained from databases of institutions such as the Bank of Mozambique, the World Bank, INE and in reports of the General State Account still on an annual basis, and were then transformed to a quarterly basis. Through the techniques used, it was possible to observe that the variables: trade deficit, budget deficit and exchange rate (metical/dollar) are statistically significant at all conventional significance levels (1%, 5% and 10%). An increase in the trade deficit by 1 percentage point (pp) results in an increase in external public debt by 1.04 pp, an increase in the budget deficit by 1 monetary unit results in a reduction in external public debt by 302 pp and an increase in the exchange rate by 1 pp results in an increase in external public debt by 5.88 pp. The estimated model explains 55.54% of the variations in external public debt. Through the estimation of the VAR model, it was possible to verify that the impact of the trade deficit on external public debt is significant, but of small magnitude, standing at 2.01%.( TRADUÇÃO NOSSA)