Análise do impacto da inclusão financeira na efectividade da política monetária em Moçambique (2005 - 2022)

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the impact of financial inclusion on the effectiveness of monetary policy in Mozambique, using time series data from 2005 to 2022 obtained from the Bank of Mozambique Statistics. To achieve this objective, the annual financial inclusion index was disaggregated into monthly data, using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and the Error Correction Model (EMC) techniques to estimate the impact of financial inclusion on the effectiveness of monetary policy. The results of the study are consistent with economic theory. The MQO model indicates that financial inclusion has a significant and positive impact on the effectiveness of monetary policy, when controlling for other variables, which is reflected in the reduction in inflation by 0.870 percentage points (p.p.) in the long term. In parallel, empirical evidence obtained through the error correction model suggests better results, where financial inclusion reduces the inflation rate by 3.303 p.p. in the short term. The more moderate impact in the long term suggests the need for measures that promote not only access, but also the active and continued use of financial services. Therefore, the Government is recommended to establish minimum ATM standards for each commercial bank, strengthen financial education and promote financial account expansion programs targeting rural populations, especially women, in order to ensure broader and more sustainable financial inclusion.(TRADUÇÂO NOSSA)