Efeitos dos choques macroeconómicos na dinâmica da dívida pública moçambicana 1999 – 2021

Abstract

The study analyzes the impact of macroeconomic variables identified in the law of motion of public debt - economic growth, primary balance, inflation and exchange rate - in dynamics of public debt in Mozambique from 1999 to 2021. Public debt begins its trajectory in the time series under analysis with its GDP ratio higher at 100%, a position maintained until 2002, but which quickly fell to below 50% in 2006 and remained relatively stable until 2014. However, in 2015 and 2016, debt rose drastically, exceeding 80% and 105% of GDP, respectively, exceeding the limits sustainability targets established by SADC. In 2016, the Government announced the entry into a period of efforts towards fiscal consolidation, due to the high level of debt. Node However, from 2017 to 2021, public debt increased from MT 661,369 million to MT 1,069,317 million, and its index in relation to GDP rose from 81.8% to 96%. With the intention of understanding how public debt reacts to unexpected shocks in variables economic growth, primary balance, inflation and exchange rate, the study uses the Vector Autoregression (VAR) structure, following the model proposed by Sims (1980), using quarterly data and four-period lags. The results of the Choleskey Impulse Response Function (IRF) demonstrate that the shocks in economic growth have a prominent role. A one standard deviation shock in variable, equivalent to 0.74 percentage points (pp), results in a decrease of 0.38pp in the ratio, in the fourth quarter after the shock. In the twentieth post-shock period, the impact is permanent, with a greater decrease, estimated at 1.45pp, and accumulated impact of just over 15pp. Revealing a lasting, long-term impact. Inflation proved to be the second most representative variable. An increase unexpected effect of this variable has a reducing effect on the debt/GDP ratio, although this impact is evident only in the first few years after the shock. A similar result, although less expressive, is observed in exchange rate shocks, which result in increases only in the first 8 periods (2 years), but they tend to stabilize over time. As for shocks in the primary balance and interest rate variables, these have an effect limited in debt dynamics. This observation is corroborated by the analysis of causality Granger predictive. vii Given the weak primary balance potential and high economic growth, the study highlights the importance of economic policy makers carrying out consolidation measures accurate tax policies, considering economic multipliers, and adopt a strategy of long-term aligned with the economic cycle and be calibrated to support growth and in harmony with economic recovery, to avoid the effects of worsening the debt unsustainability.(TRADUÇÃO NOSSA)