O contributo da indústria açucareira no crescimento económico de Moçambique: 2012 a 2022

Abstract

This study sought to verify the existence of non-random patterns in the time series of the sugar industry's contribution to GDP in the period from 2012 to 2022, and whether observation of this past behavior can allow predictions to be made about the future, guiding decision-making on the conduct of industrial policy in the country. The results found seem to indicate, with a 95% confidence level, that the sugar industry's contribution to GDP was influenced by a more or less constant causal system, related to time, in the past, which may continue to do so in the future. However, this causal system is not stable due to the occurrence of seasonal and irregular variations that modify the trend, thus influencing the sugar industry's contribution to Mozambique's GDP. It was concluded that the protectionist industrial policy being applied in Mozambique, by failing to isolate the impact of seasonal and irregular variations, is sub-optimal, which is reflected in its ineffectiveness in preventing the decreasing trend in the contribution of the sugar industry to Mozambique's GDP in the period under study. (TRADUÇÂO NOSSA)