O efeito do défice orçamental sobre a taxa de juro em Moçambique 2005-2023

Abstract

The general aim of this study is to analyze the effect of the budget deficit on the interest rate in Mozambique between 2005 and 2023. To achieve this objective, a descriptive analysis based on the graphical method was adopted, as well as the estimation of a model based on the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method and the Granger causality test. The main results of the study indicate that in Mozambique, the budget deficit has no effect on the real interest rate in the short term. However, there is a notable influence observed in the long term which suggests that permanent increases in the budget deficit have a positive effect on the real interest rate. The results also indicate that the causal direction between these variables is bidirectional. Consequently, the study concluded that the budget deficit has a positive effect on the real interest rate in Mozambique. However, the effect varies depending on the specific time horizon under analysis, highlighting the complex dynamics that exist between these variables as time progresses. It is recommended that public finances are managed prudently and that the government considers the adverse impact of the budget deficit on the real interest rate in the long term. It is also recommended that the government finance the budget deficit from external resources and not through domestic credit, and that it coordinate effectively with the monetary authorities to avoid macroeconomic instability in the long term and reduce the inefficiency of high budget deficits in Mozambique