Regime de metas de inflação em Moçambique: uma análise empírica sobre o impacto da taxa MIMO no controle das taxas de inflação (2010 – 2021)

Abstract

The present work aims to analyze the monetary policy regime of inflation in Mozambique, investigating the impact of the MIMO rate on controlling interest rates inflation in the period from 2010 to 2021. The research is essentially based on the fact that the literature postulates that the adoption of an inflation targeting regime allows one to achieve stability of the price level. However, in some periods of the series the policy monetary policy presented a desired performance insofar as it was effective in controlling inflation rates, and in others, the behavior of inflation rates showed a certain independence in relation to monetary policy, which calls into question the impact of the rate MIMO on the inflation rate. To conduct the research, the methodology was used econometric model based on the Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR) model and the Granger causality, with the results indicating that in the period under analysis the rate MIMO has had a significant impact on controlling inflation rates in Mozambique, and that the MIMO rate Granger causes inflation, and vice versa. In front of findings of the present study, coordination between fiscal and monetary policy in order to guarantee the stability of inflation levels, as in the presence of fiscal dominance, even a restrictive monetary policy in the short term, the result will be higher inflation rates in the long term. It is also recommended to improve the effectiveness of central bank operational instruments and government policies so reduce the economy's vulnerability to external shocks(TRADUÇÃO NOSSA)