Efeitos assimétricos da dívida pública interna sobre o crédito ao sector privado: uma evidência empírica de Moçambique (2000-2022)

Abstract

This paper uses quarterly data from the period 2000 to 2022 to study the impact of asymmetric effects of domestic public debt on credit to the private sector in Mozambique, based on the non-linear autoregressive distributed lags model (NARDL). In addition, the study also aims to analyse the existence of the expulsion effect via the quantity channel. channel. The results obtained suggest that there is no expulsion effect in Mozambique through the quantity channel in the long term, since both positive and negative variations in credit to the and negative variations in public sector credit have an insignificant impact on private sector credit. to the private sector. However, the short-term evidence suggests that there is a positive relationship between positive variations in credit to the public sector and credit to the private sector, where, an increase in credit to the public sector of 1 per cent results in an increase in credit to the private sector of by 0.26 per cent over two quarters. This leads to the conclusion that there is crowding in via the quantity channel in Mozambique in the short term only when there are positive variations in the domestic public debt. Finally, the results indicate that there are asymmetric effects of the domestic public debt on credit to the private sector only in the short term. in the long term.(TRADUÇAO NOSSA)