Impacto da dívida pública no crescimento económico em Moçambique: 2000 – 2020

Abstract

This paper analyses the impact of total public debt on economic growth in Mozambique from 2000 to 2020. in Mozambique from 2000 to 2020. To achieve this central objective of the study, the econometric method based on regression analysis was used. Specifically time trend and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models were estimated. (ARDL) models were estimated, based on annual time series data for the study period. The estimation of the time trend model produced results showing that economic economic growth fell, on average, at a rate of 0.28 per cent and total public debt grew, at an average rate of 4.5 per cent per year. In turn, the main results of estimating the ARDL model show that an increase in total public debt of one percentage point led to a reduction in economic growth of around 0.06 and 0.04 percentage points in the short term and long term, respectively. short term and long term, respectively, ceteris paribus. These results seem to indicate that the funds resulting from the public debt have not been been applied productively, which in turn implies a low level of public infrastructure. infrastructure. This, in turn, can lead to economic stagnation and, consequently, to the perpetuation of poverty. perpetuation of poverty.In this context, it is recommended that public debt be contracted with great caution and only with great caution and only to finance productive projects that not only make it possible to sustain debt servicing service the debt, but also generate more options and opportunities in the economy, making it more dynamic and more dynamic and amplifying its social benefits.(TRADUÇAO NOSSA)