Mecanismos de transmissão da política monetária em Moçambique através do canal de crédito 2000-2020

Abstract

The general objective of this research is to analyze the impact of Monetary Policy on Mozambique's economy from 2000 to 2020. This is due to the fact that Mozambique presents inconsistencies in the performance of monetary policy, which raises questions about the role of monetary policy transmission mechanisms, in particular the credit channel. In order to achieve the objectives, the research used a combined (qualitative and quantitative) econometric methodology, based on the Autoregressive Vectors (ARV) model. The results indicate that the MIMO rate, which is the Bank of Mozambique's reference rate, has a positive but not statistically significant influence on inflation and that for Gross Domestic Product it was significant, thus rejecting the null hypothesis formulated. The results also show that the monetary policy reference rate has a positive impact on interest rates, although it is insignificant, which means that the interest rates charged by commercial banks when granting credit are not influenced by monetary policy shocks. In turn, this interest rate has no impact on credit to the private sector and little impact on credit to the public sector, thus revealing the non-existence of the credit channel. To achieve the objectives, the research used a combined methodology (qualitative and quantitative), the econometric methodology was based on the Autoregressive Vectors model (VAR), the Cointegration test and the Granger Causality test. The results indicate that the MIMO rate, which is the Bank of Mozambique's reference rate, has a positive but not statistically significant influence on inflation, while for Gross Domestic Product it was significant, thus rejecting the null hypothesis. The results also show that the monetary policy reference rate has a positive impact on the interest rate, although it is insignificant, which means that the interest rates charged by commercial banks when granting credit are not influenced by monetary policy shocks. and little impact on credit to the public sector, thus revealing the non-existence of the credit channel. (TRADUÇAO NOSSA)