Co-integração do mercado de açúcar em Moçambique

Abstract

This paper presents analyses that describe the behavior of the main sugar markets in the country in the three regions (Maputo, Beira and Nampula), which are classified as markets of perfect competition because they are markets with several buyers and sellers. To achieve the proposed objectives, an econometric approach based on Johansen co-integration and Granger causality models was applied. The concepts of market integration and the Law of One Price were also introduced, which constitute a theoretical basis for the joint analysis of the behavior of these markets. The results suggest that the three variables Maputo City Sugar Price (PACM), Beira City Sugar Price (PACB) and Nampula City Sugar Price (PACN) are all first order integrated, the causality, co integration, exogeneity and proportionality tests appropriate to the context were performed. The causality relationships that are established among the variables reveal that the Maputo market Granger causes the Beira and Nampula markets unilaterally. It is also found that the Beira market causes Granger to cause Nampula. The results point to the existence of a single co-integrating vector. The PACB is the only index that appears clearly endogenous, therefore, the PACB is the leading driver for price variation in the other markets. (TRADUÇÃO NOSSA)