Estudo da tendência dos casos de infecção de HIV em Moçambique

Abstract

In recent years, there has been an increasing trend of HIV infection cases, requiring the introduction of new forms of socio-economic planning by the government of Mozambique. The study of the evolution of HIV infection cases in Mozambique is an important activity to assist in determining the resources required for the mitigation of the HIV epidemic. For this work, the Box-Jenkins methodology, described by these authors in the 1970s, was used to analyse historical data of HIV infection cases in the Southern, Central and Northern regions of the country in the period between August 2003 and June 2008. It was found that only the time series of the Central region was stationary in level. The forecast was directed to each region, seeking to represent their behavior by means of Box-Jenkins models. The most adequate models were obtained based on graphic analysis and statistical tests of the methodology, which subsidized the decision to adopt the ARIMA (1,1,0) model to predict the number of HIV infection cases in the South region, the ARIMA (1,0,1) model for the Central region and the ARIMA (0,1,1) model to predict the HIV infection cases in the North region. The forecasts were all made for the period between July and December 2008, showing an increasing trend of HIV infection cases for the Southern and Northern regions and a decreasing trend for the Central region during the forecasting period.

(TRADUÇAO NOSSA)