Análise do comportamento da velocidade de circulação da moeda em Moçambique no período 1993-2005

Abstract

The Bank of Mozambique (BM) to achieve its objectives of controlling the level of prices and growth of the Gross Domestic Product, uses monetary aggregates as an intermediate target, assuming that the money supply is linked to the nominal product. For the use of this method, the predictability of the Currency Circulation Speed ​​appears as a primordial condition. Since this is predictable and the money supply is controlled by the monetary authorities, nominal GDP can be determined and controlled through monetary policy. However, making an assessment of the fulfillment of the objectives sought by the BM, it is noticed a non-compliance with the established goals, which, among other reasons, may be linked to the nature of VCM. Thus, this study analyzes the behavior and stability of VCM in Mozambique in the period between 1993-2005. To this end, two measures of money were used, namely Money Mass and Money in the broad sense. In addition to the analysis of behavior and stability (which is determined from the Coefficient of Variation), an analysis of its trend is carried out and the influence of some external factors on it is determined. Based on this analysis, it was concluded that: Money Mass Velocity presents a more stable behavior than Money Velocity in the broad sense, thus evidencing better conditions to be considered in the formulation of monetary policy; both speeds had the decreasing behavior expected from this variable in developing countries. Interest rate and financial innovation are responsible for approximately 50% of VCM variations. Once these conclusions have been drawn, it is recommended that: it is not enough for the BM to control the money supply, consideration must be given to the behavior of VCM (since the objectives advocated by the control of the money supply may be deviated if there is any change in VCM ); and, instead of the current monetary aggregate used in the formulation of monetary policy (Currency in the broad sense), the Monetary mass aggregate should be used, since its velocity showed a more stable behavior