Análise da evolução da dívida externa moçambicana: razões da sua continuidade

Abstract

External debt is one of the constraints that hinder the economic efficiency of debtor countries in favor of creditors. When a country is faced with insufficiency of financial capital due to an economic deficit and, if internal conditions are unable to adjust the balance, it absolutely has to resort to external financing. External debt is the acceptance of a foreign credit in which it is subject to the payment of interest or not with repayment of the capital within a given credit repayment period. There are three reasons for domestic indebtedness: budget deficit financing; implementation of monetary policies; and development of the financial sector. The classic consequences of the external debt advocate an incessant dynamism of the determinants that create an illusion that the debt will never run out. Therefore, the reason for this work is linked to the evolution of the external debt, although there are several initiatives for its reduction under the HIPC. With this program it was expected that the external debt could be reduced, but it is noted that it continues to grow. For, investment in an indebted country cannot generate income that guarantee stability of its economy in the short or medium term, since the income resulting from its activities is channeled towards the payment of the external debt. The causes of the external debt crisis are supported by several factors of an interactive and complex nature, such as the application of expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, for example the need for development; the high capital flight and the recession of the world economy. And, from the study carried out, it appears that the debt in general is evolving from year to year, revenues from exports of goods and services are still not sufficient to honor debt commitments, despite relief programs. However, Mozambique's external debt stock had a declining trend in the period between 1999 and 2002, as a result of relief granted under the HIPC initiative and by the international community through the Paris Club, from about 6 billion to 4, US$ 6 billion on December 31, 2005 and to US$ 3.3 billion in 2006. Despite this trend, after HIPC, bilateral debt with countries outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development group increased in its weight in relation to the total, but in absolute terms there was an average reduction of around 72% and 56.1% of the debt stock with OECD countries and non-members of this organization. There were also reductions in multilateral debt, between 1998 and 2002, which fell by 29.3% from 2.1 billion US dollars to 1.5 billion US dollars. In the period between 1992 and 2002 it appears that the debt paid is lower than the debt overdue, even after the relief, the debt service grew, the revenues from exports of goods and services were insufficient, reason for the continued recourse to financing and external indebtedness. However, once HIPC II became effective in 2001, the debt levels rose to USD55 million/year in the 2000/2006 period and the forecast of USD82 million in the 2007/2012 period and to USD98 million in the 2013/2017 period, against annual levels of USD73 million, USD99 million and USD117 million that would have taken place in HIPC I and of USD 172 million, USD203 million and USD251 million/year that would have taken place in the absence of HIPC I. In view of these findings, to avoid the external debt crisis and compromise development efforts, government authorities must create mechanisms that allow reducing external dependence, increasing production availability, guaranteeing exports and maximizing the financing option through donations , resorting to credits, especially to concessionaires, only for sectors of vital importance to the national economy. And, finally, pay greater attention and in an integrated manner to the social, productive and infrastructure areas to ensure economic development and growth, through better allocation, use and evaluation of resources