Relação entre a variabilidade da precipitação, temperatura, altitude e casos de cólera em Moçambique

Abstract

The work was divided into three stages; the first stage of the research was characterized by the theoretical foundation of the object of study aiming at the elaboration of a theoretical - methodological basis that enabled the analysis of the relation precipitation, temperature, altitude, and cases of cholera, the second stage was characterized by the collection of Dice. Cholera data were extracted from the Weekly Epidemiological Bulletin (BSE) and meteorological data for the stations of Maputo/Observatory, Maputo/Mavalane, Changalane, Umbeluzi, Chokwé, Xai-Xai, Chibuto, Maniquenique, Zavala, Inhambane, Vilanculos, Beira /Observatory, Beira/Airport, Chimoio, Tete, Quelimane, Pebane, Nampula, Angoche, Lichinga, Cuamba, Pemba, Mocímboa da Praia and Montepuez, were collected at the National Institute of Meteorology (INAM). The third stage corresponded to the statistical treatment of primary data, with both health and climate data being treated in the instat 2.52 software, spatialized in the ArcView GIS 3.2 software. In a first phase, the correlation of a year (1998) was made, working with data from eight randomly selected districts, then the annual correlation of the sum and/or average of the data of the variables under study was made, that is, the selected districts were considered. like the whole country. The results found were somewhat significant. Then, the correlation analysis was carried out with an advance of one month for the two previous cases. The results found showed a better association between the data. Considering that most of the results of the correlation analysis are significant, it is believed that there is a correlation between the variables studied here if we take into account the difficulties that Epidemiology and Meteorology face in data collection. It is recommended that information on climate and weather forecasts be consulted by health entities, which will enable the creation of simultaneous scenarios between the occurrence of cholera and severe events of the predominant climatic elements for the maturation of the risky environment.(TRADUÇÃO NOSSA)