O Impacto dos desastres naturais nos agregados macroeconômicos: o caso de Moçambique nas cheias de 2000 e 2001

Abstract

The work seeks to answer (i) whether economic disasters have or not negative impacts on the country's economic performance, (ii) mechanisms for spreading the effects on the economy and (iii) recommending economic policy measures. The analysis is based on the behavior of macroeconomic variables such as GDP, fiscal deficit, trade deficit, inflation rate, exchange rate and interest rates over a 10-year period between 1995 and 2004 with the 2000 and 2001 floods as a reference between the previous ones. and the after. The 2000 and 2001 floods had, in the short term, a negative effect on the economic performance of the economy manifested by the drop in the GDP growth rate, increase in the inflation rate and deterioration of the fiscal position, but registered a quick economic recovery in the medium and long term. The conclusion is reached that for small economies and highly dependent on foreign aid such as Mozambique, the impact of natural disasters in the short and long term is achieved through the rapid availability of funds for rehabilitation and reconstruction by the international community (external factors) and the capacity for internal coordination of policies between the central bank and the government in managing large foreign exchange flows, avoiding the worsening of the inflation rate, exchange rate and fiscal and trade deficits (internal factors). The boom in megaproject exports prevented the deterioration of the trade balance. In a scenario of more frequent, severe and intense natural disasters, the policy implications are the focus on ex-anie (preventive) fiscal, financial and regulatory measures such as the integration in annual budgets of a contingency fund to respond to natural disasters, the obligation of economic agents to have insurance against natural disasters in their projects and an urban and industrial settlement policy that takes into account the mapping of natural disaster risks. (TRADUÇÃO NOSSA)