Poupança nos países em desenvolvimento: o caso de Moçambique

Abstract

The present work aims to analyze the behavior of savings in Mozambique. To achieve the above objective, an empirical model of savings in Mozambique was estimated, which includes the variables real GDP per capita, real interest rate, percentage of credit to the economy, variation of credit on the economy, adult dependency rate, public savings and variation in terms of trade, for the period 1980 to 2005. The estimation results show that the real growth of GDP per capita, public savings and the variation in the terms of trade, have positive impacts on the country's internal savings and the other variables, the real interest rate, the percentage of credit to the economy, the variation of credit to the economy and the adult dependency rate have a negative impact on domestic savings. From the results, it can be seen that a growth of 1% in real GDP per capita, in public savings and in the variation in terms of trade, leads to an increase in domestic savings by around 0.12%, 1.3% and 0.02%, respectively. On the other hand, a growth of 1% in the real interest rate, in the percentage of the economy's credit to GDP, in the variation in credit to the economy and in the adult dependency rate, leads to a reduction of about -0.3%, - 0.03%, -0.005% and -47%, respectively From these results, it can be concluded that, in order to increase domestic savings, attention should be paid to variables such as public savings, interest rate and the adult dependency rate.