Indústria açucareira em Moçambique : produção versus importação do açúcar

Abstract

Pursuing the objectives of export promotion, import substitution and job creation, the government is revitalizing the sugar industry (INA 1996: 6-9). The battle is huge: (i) funding for rehabilitation is sought; (ii) attract private investors; and (Hi) effective protection is reinforced, raising the tariff on sugar imports and lowering tariffs on importable inputs. Does the sugar sector have enough potential to help the government achieve its intended goals? Its viability depends on the market. However, the size of the domestic market is not known. On the international market, cane sugar faces strong competition from beet sugar, when alternative sweeteners threaten to replace sugar consumption. Taking into account the technical and management conditions in the two sugar plants that remain operational — Açucareira de Xinavane and Açucareira de Moçambique (Mafambisse) — this paper analyzes the competitiveness of the national industry and the cost of domestic resources in sugar production in Mozambique, studying four issues: (i) the use of available resources (ii) productivity in sugarcane production; (iii) the efficiency of sugar extraction at the factory; and (iv) the impact of the tariff structure. To assess the competitiveness and cost of domestic resources at production levels different from the current ones, scenarios projecting the evolution of costs were designed. The study concludes that the competitive potential in the two sugar plants diverges. Mafambisse, with an installed capacity twice as high (80,000 t/a) as Xinavane (40,000 t/a), has high fixed costs. In addition, the injection of funds for the rehabilitation project since 1991 has raised variable costs. . As a result, the unit costs are greater than the c.i.f. of sugar. Keeping the current cost structure constant, even producing at full capacity it would not reach economic neutral: the projected unit cost would be USD 503/t, when the average cost c.i.f. of sugar between 1990 and 1996 was USD 334/1. Furthermore, in the long run, the cost of domestic resources is three times higher than the foreign currency saved. Xinavane, with severe financial constraints and equipment obsolescence reflected in declining production, is minimizing unit costs, approaching c.i.f. of sugar. If the current cost structure remains constant, Xinavane would have a unit cost of USD 302/t, producing at full capacity. Due to the reduced imported component, Xinavane obtains greater added values ​​at domestic and international prices. There are three fundamental reasons for the poor competitive position of the national sugar industry: (i) the underutilization of available resources (installed capacity, land and labor); (ii) low productivity in sugarcane production; and (iii) the inefficiency of sugar extraction at the factory. All indicators for the two sugar mills declined from early 1970s levels: capacity utilization dropped to 14% (Xinavane) and 27% (Mafambisse) in 1996; the annual duration of the milling campaigns was reduced from eight months to four months; and industrial yield — tons of sugar extracted for every ton of cane crushed — dropped from 11% to 9%. In Xinavane, of the 7,000 ha available for sugarcane cultivation in Xinavane, only 2,000 ha are used, and in Mafambisse, of the 8,500 ha available, only 5,000 ha are used. Could permanent workers employed in Mafambisse support a 100% increase in production and, in Xinavane, 400%? This study does not prove the viability of the sugar sector. Its conclusions are only valid for the technical and management conditions prevailing in the period studied. However, two lessons can be drawn: (i) rehabilitation does not in itself guarantee a competitive and economically efficient sugar sector; and (ii) the rehabilitation of factories with large production capacity is not a safe strategy when there is no capacity to maximize their use and the market is uncertain. At the level of sugar plantations, a significant improvement in management and technical capacity is recommended, while at the sector level there is a need for reflection on technological policy in order to find the best options for Mozambique.