Aplicação do modelo de apoio a decisão na bacia do zambeze na análise da variabilidade da precipitação

Abstract

The sustainable management of water resources has been one of the greatest challenges of the 21st century, mainly due to the increasingly frequent negative impacts of extreme events resulting from climate change. However, in view of the problem of climate change combined with the increased complexity in the management of water resources, it is clear the importance of developing tools that can assist in the process of assessing the impacts of climate change. Decision Support Systems (DSS) are tools that can be used by water resources managers to make the basic elements of the decision process more explicit (Mattei, 2005). Therefore, the main objective of the present work is to demonstrate the application of the ZDSS tool, specially designed for the Zambezi basin, in the analysis of rainfall variability in four sub-basins of the Zambezi basin. To this end, the specific objectives were defined as (i) to demonstrate the operation of the ZDSS; (ii) to demonstrate the importance of the ZDSS in assessing the impact of climate change; (iii) to analyze the annual rainfall trend in the Zambezi basin, using the climate models inserted in the ZDSS; and (iv) to analyze the seasonal rainfall trend in the Zambezi basin, using the climate models inserted in the ZDSS. The research was based essentially on exploratory data analysis, taking as a basis the observed and projected future climate evidence, according to the scenarios generated by the climate models inserted in the SDSSZ. The results showed that there were no significant trends of either increasing or decreasing precipitation in the two periods under analysis, i.e., historical and future. However, in the seasonal analysis there was a well-defined seasonality in all periods, noting a drier and prolonged winter and a wetter and shorter summer, that is, few rainy months and more dry months.(TRADUÇÃO NOSSA)