Levantamento de plantas invasoras no distrito de Báruè província de Manica e modelação da distribuição potencial da Lantana camara em Moçambique

Abstract

Invasive plants represent one of the greatest threats to global biodiversity loss, causing ecological, economic, and social damage. However, in Mozambique, there is still a lack of information on the occurrence, distribution, and impact of these species. Based on this, the present research was carried out with the objective of characterizing the invasive plant species in the Báruè district, Manica province, and modeling the potential distribution of Lantana camara in Mozambique. To this end, a survey of tree, shrub, and herbaceous species was conducted using probabilistic sampling in 1000 m2 plots distributed at different points in the district, covering agricultural areas, pastures, scrubland, and road verges. For tree and shrub species, only those with a DBH ≥ 5 cm were considered; the others were only counted and recorded. For herbaceous species, a 1 m2 grid was used, applied 10 times at each sampling point. The data analysis was based on classifying the species as invasive and non-invasive, describing their growth habit, distribution by area type, and calculating their respective phytosociological parameters. The potential distribution modeling of Lantana camara was performed using MaxEnt v. 3.4.1 software, utilizing 71 presence points and bioclimatic variables (BIOCLIM) for current and future scenarios (2050 and 2075). In total, 247 species were recorded, of which 53 were classified as invasive. Among them, 36 are herbaceous (68%), 11 shrubs (21%), and 6 trees (11%), distributed across 22 botanical families, with Poaceae, Fabaceae, and Asteraceae being the most prominent. For herbaceous species, in general, Vernonia poskeana stood out as the most frequent (12.53%) and with the highest IVI (14.29%), Loudetia simplex registered the highest relative abundance (3.91%), and Senna occidentalis presented the highest relative coverage (2.02%). In the group of tree and shrub species, Diplorhynchus condylocarpon was the most frequent (6.09%), Uapaca kirkiana had the highest relative density (15.64%), and Brachystegia boehmii stood out for its relative dominance (28.03%) and the highest IVI (36.20%). Currently, the area potentially prone to invasion by Lantana camara in the country is estimated at approximately 6.24%, equivalent to 50,019.22 km2, and could reach 16.36% (131,140.12 km2) by 2075 under a moderate climate scenario.