Avaliação do efeito das alterações climáticas na ocorrência e distribuição de fungos e micotoxinas nas culturas de milho (Zea mays L.), arroz (Oryza sativa L.) e amendoim (Arachis hypogaea L.) na região sul de Moçambique

Abstract

Mycotoxin production depends on fungal growth and can occur at any time during the growth, harvest, or storage of crops. Toxigenic fungi and mycotoxins are common in food crops, and their occurrence is conditioned by favorable abiotic factors. Thus, environmental conditions are key factors for fungal colonization, as well as for mycotoxin production, especially in tropical regions, where climatic conditions favor their development, representing a threat to food security. In this context, the present work was carried out with the objective of evaluating the effect of climate change on the occurrence and distribution of toxigenic fungi and mycotoxins in the southern region of Mozambique, in order to understand the impact of the interaction of abiotic factors related to climate change on the relative risk of contamination by toxigenic fungi and associated mycotoxins. Eighty grain samples were used from the following crops: maize (30), rice (30) and peanut (20), collected in the districts of Chókwè, Manjacaze and Chongoene, with the sampling points duly georeferenced. Analysis was carried out on the number of occurrences of toxigenic fungi and mycotoxins identified in the samples. The modeling of the potential and predictive distribution was carried out using the MaxEnt model version 3.4.4, with 4 bioclimatic variables and 2 soil variables, considering the current scenario, and the future scenarios predicted by the IPCC: RCP 4.5 (2041 – 2060) and RCP 8.5 (2041 – 2060), based on the MIROC-6 climate model. The results indicated that the average annual precipitation (Bio12), average annual temperature (Bio1) and the annual thermal amplitude (Bio7) were the variables that most contributed to the occurrence and distribution of fungi and mycotoxins. The areas potentially prone to the occurrence of fungi and mycotoxins in the southern region of the country are concentrated, above all, in the districts located near the coastal strip and in inland watercourses (rivers), and can reach up to 27.86%. Projections indicated a reduction in areas prone to the occurrence of Aspergillus flavus, Fusarium spp., Aflatoxins, and Fumonisins; however, an increase in areas prone to the occurrence of Zearalenone was observed(TRADUÇÃO NOSSA)