Análise das discrepâncias entre o modelo de previsão e a produção real no rácio dos produtos de ilmenite na planta de separação mineral da Kenmare

Abstract

Kenmare Resources, a leading mining company in Mozambique, produces ilmenite, rutile, and zircon as its main mineral outputs, extracted from heavy mineral sands in Nampula province. However, a consistent discrepancy has been observed between the projected and actual production values of ilmenite (IP1, IP2 and IP3) in the heavy mineral separation plant (MSP). This study focused on identifying factors contributing to these divergences, including internal material migrations between products, losses in MSP and wet concentrate plant (WCP) tailings streams, and limitations of the forecasting model itself. Through sample analysis and comparison with the ideal split, significant internal migrations were confirmed, along with ilmenite losses in tailings (especially IP3 and baghouse efficiency issues), and the need to revise the forecasting model due to sampling variability. It is concluded that discrepancies result from a combination of operational and planning factors, with internal migrations being the most influential. Recommendations include revising the forecasting model, reducing losses in tailings, and further investigating losses in WCPs.