Viabilidade financeira da produção de um pomar de litchi no distrito de Matutuíne

Abstract

This study aimed to analyze the financial viability of establishing a litchi orchard in the Matutuíne district. Secondary data provided by Miombo Consultores Ltda. as part of a business plan were used to determine litchi production costs. Production costs were then calculated, divided into three parts: crop operations, inputs, and equipment. Based on the previously established assumptions, the results indicate that, for a 1-ha orchard, the project generates US$154,100/ha in revenue, compared to expenses of US$10,324.31/ha over a 12-year time horizon. The minimum price and yield below which the project would be considered unviable were US$1.44/kg and US$3,852.35/ha, respectively. Litchi cultivation in the Matutuíne district is a viable activity, given that the NPV calculated at a discount rate of 24% was positive (US$13,789.81/ha), as was the VAE (US$3,581.91/ha). The IRR (25.1%) was greater than the discount rate used in the NPV calculation, the B/C ratio (1.34) was greater than 1, and the IR (1.85) was greater than 1. The six-year payback period was indicated as one of the biggest bottlenecks in litchi establishment in the Matutuíne district. It was observed that if the interest rate falls by 25% to 50%, the project presents increasingly higher NPV, VAE, IRR, and B/C ratios, meaning that the project will still be viable. If the interest rate rises by 25%, the NPV, VAE, IRR, and B/C ratios will decrease. However, the project will still remain viable; the same is not true when the interest rate increases by 50%, where the project's viability is seriously affected. Regarding the price, a reduction or a small increase in the litchi marketing price makes it a viable activity. A further increase is observed in NPV, VAE, IRR, and B/C ratio, meaning that the project becomes increasingly viable.