Redistribuição de camarões da família Penaeidae na região da zona económica exclusiva de Moçambique

Abstract

Penaeidae shrimps are a fishery resource of great economic importance to the global fishing industry. Mozambique's Exclusive Economic Zone boasts a wide diversity of Penaeidae shrimp species, which play a crucial role in the sustainability of marine ecosystems and the local economy. However, in recent years, a pattern of redistribution of these species has been observed, raising concerns and questions among fishermen, researchers, and environmental managers. This study was designed to predict and model the redistribution of Penaeidae shrimps within Mozambique's Exclusive Economic Zone and identify the environmental variables that influence this redistribution. Pelagic trawl data collected during the "Fridtjof Nansen" cruise were used to develop the model. The observations cover two distinct periods: from February to March 2018 and from May to June 2023. The study area is located between latitudes (-16º South and -25º South), and longitudes (33ºE and 40ºE). To model the redistribution of penaedae shrimp in the MZC, GAM (Generalized Additive Model) was chosen, a Gaussian distribution was used to fit the model. The variations were illustrated through a multiple regression graph, which explains the variation in catches f(x) as a function of each independent variable. The selected variables were significant to the model with approximately 58.5% of the explained deviation: (Latitude–Longitude; Sea Surface Temperature (SST); Eastward Current Velocity (Uo); and Oxygen (mmolm-3). The GAM model was selected to explain the spatial and temporal variation of penaedae shrimp in the MZC, and included Sea Surface Temperature as a significant predictor. The model results predict changes between the future time intervals of "2050-2030," "2070-2030," and "2090-2030" in the redistribution of penaede shrimp in the Mozambique Exclusive Economic Zone region, among the scenarios (Optimistic, Pessimistic, and Moderate).