Modelagem do índice de preço da Gasolina para Veículos de Transporte Pessoal na Cidade de Maputo 2000-2007, Aplicando a Metodologia de Box-Jenkins

Abstract

The main objective of the present work is to analyze the gasoline price index for personal transport vehicles in Maputo City, applying Box-Jenkins models, where, based on the analysis performed, the model that best describes the price index for the years under study was found. The present work consists of three main chapters: the literature review where the temporal series in general and the possible forecasting models are approached; the methodology that approaches all the steps that must be done with a temporal series in order for it to be projected, and finally the results, which show that the behavior of the gasoline price index series for personal transport vehicles in Maputo City between January 2000 and December 2007 is stationary in first differences. According to the model obtained from the Box-Jenkins methodology, it predicts, for the months of November and December November and December of the year 2008, indexes 0.105 and 0.235 respectively. (TRADUÇÃO NOSSA)