A volatilidade do Eleitorado do MDM em 2013: estudo do caso da Cidade de Maputo

Abstract

This paper seeks to explain the behavior of voters who voted for the MDM in the 2013 municipal elections in Maputo city, with a special focus on those who in 2008 were of voting age. Given that the party was founded during the previous term and all other parties lost voters from 2008-2013, the study assumes that the volatility of these voters is due to negative feelings towards one or more of the others political parties (competitors in 2013 and/or in 2008)2. This assumption is supported by the theory of negative vote, which is subdivided into protest vote and strategic vote. In addition to these, theories framed in the positive vote were also tested to explain the volatility of these voters. Field research confirmed a significant part of our hypothesis but revealed some limitations of applicability of these theories in the case study. The negative vote theory, in general, is limited by the fact that MDM voters have positive motivations in favor of this party strong enough to justify their vote. If we go by parts, the limitation of the protest vote theory is due to the fact that voters show dissatisfaction with the party in power for more than one term, and therefore intend to remove it from power by electing the MDM (not just draw attention/give notice). The limitation of the theory of strategic voting is due to the fact that voters who voted for the opposition had a negative evaluation of the performance of the party they previously voted for, while at the same time they had a positive evaluation of the performance of the MDM, and started to have the latter as a first preference.